112-1 Evaluating the Causational Relationship Between Increases in Induced Seismicity in the Texas Permian Basin and Wastewater Injection Volume Levels

Session: Geophysics in Investigating and Exploring for Mineral, Energy and Groundwater Resources (Posters)

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Since 2009, the Delaware Basin of West Texas, a massive petroleum resource for much of the Southern United States due to its abundant shale reservoirs, frequently experiences an increasing amount of low to moderate magnitude earthquakes (2.0+ on the Richter scale) due to its position on ancient shallow faults. Furthermore, the rates at which unconventional hydrocarbon retrieval methods such as hydraulic fracturing are utilized have increased significantly both since 2009, thus raising considerable concerns regarding the understanding of induced seismic risk factors within the Delaware Basin. 

With multiple studies having discussed the increasing rates of seismic activity and the risks associated with it, this study aims to evaluate the possible causational relationship between the volume of injected/disposed wastewater during hydraulic fracturing processes and the increase in the magnitude and frequency of induced earthquakes by analyzing variables such as the wastewater disposal injection rate and volume, pore pressure changes of the bedrock/crystalline basement near the hydraulic fracturing station, and the magnitudes and frequencies of induced seismicity in the surveyed area. 

The relationship between these seismic factors was investigated through the University of Texas at Austin’s TexNET Earthquake Database earthquake magnitude and frequency data and the Texas Railroad Commission’s well logs detailing the volume of disposed wastewater and the increase in pore pressure changes to create comprehensive polynomial regression models of the increase in seismic magnitudes and frequency concurrent with increases in the volume of disposed wastewater. With a correlation coefficient value of 0.983, the causational relationship between seismic magnitudes and volumes of injected/disposed wastewater is highly indicated, offering a theory as to why the evident increase in the volume of wastewater being injected as well as an increase in induced seismicity are found within the same geographical region and time intervals.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Program. Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-7879

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