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Analysis of monthly Mendenhall River Discharge and Possible Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction

Session: 37th Annual Undergraduate Research Exhibition Sponsored by Sigma Gamma Epsilon (Posters)

Presenting Author:

Isabel Held

Authors:

Held, Isabel¹, Wiles, Dr. Gregory², Gaines, Dr. Robert³

(1) Scripps College, Claremont, CA, USA, (2) College of Wooster, Wooster, Ohio, USA, (3) Pomona College, Claremont, California, USA,

Abstract:

The Mendenhall River lies in a rapidly deglaciating basin with changing hydrology. The occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods are increasing in magnitude, resulting in significant economic losses. The discharge of the Mendenhall River is also increasing, with a change of 430 cfs from 1966 to 2024. It is integral to understand the dynamics of the hydrology of this basin due to its impact on the surrounding ecology, population, and infrastructure. This study seeks to analyze the monthly Mendenhall River streamflow using tree-ring chronologies and observational records of monthly streamflow at the USGS station at Auke Bay from 1966 to the present and explore the potential of a tree-ring based reconstruction. Preliminary results suggest that Alaskan tree-ring chronologies can capture trends in the streamflow of the Mendenhall River. Over 40% of the variance of annual average can be explained using arctic and subarctic tree ring series. These variations are correlated with minimum, maximum and mean temperatures in Juneau. Further modeling and verification is underway. Results of this analysis aim to better understand the dynamics of the hydrology in the basin and its impact on the surrounding natural and built environments.