Using Dendroclimatology to Analyze the Response of Various Tree Species to Climate in Schoharie, NY

Session: 37th Annual Undergraduate Research Exhibition Sponsored by Sigma Gamma Epsilon (Posters)

Presenting Author:

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Abstract:

The 1970s saw a shift in the climate of North America, presumably forced by North Pacific climate variations. These changes are forcing trees to adapt to new climate states with differing levels of success. Currently, maple is a dominant tree species in New York State, however, forest composition is predicted to shift to oak and cedar if the current climate trends continue. Initial dendroclimatological analyses of three species, chestnut oak (CHO), northern red oak (NRO), and eastern red cedar (ERC), and their response to temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and potential evaporation in Schoharie, NY suggest that species physiology influences trees’ climate response. Emphasis was placed on temporal and spatial changes before and after 1975, changes with respect to seasons, and the relationships between tree growth over time through static, moving, partial, and spatial correlation patterns.

Temperature and precipitation have increased year-round after the 1970s, however, the summer climate has shifted most dramatically and had the largest influence on tree growth. All species responded positively to summer precipitation, while high summer temperatures limited tree growth, likely due to increased evaporative demand, but cloud cover may dampen this impact. ERC was positively correlated with spring minimum temperatures in the 1970s and 1980s, while CHO recently began responding negatively to fall temperatures, and NRO had few clear relationships with the climate shift. These climate changes have been attributed to shifts in the Pacific Ocean and the associated increased waviness of the polar front jet stream in addition to aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions. Variations between species are likely due to different water use strategies and physiological processes that rely on temperature cues. Understanding the past growth responses in Schoharie will be vital to mitigating and anticipating the impacts of future climate change on the various species for assessment of carbon storage and forest management.

Ongoing research will focus on the relationship between cloud cover and annual ring width as well as new blue intensity series over the Northeast United States. Furthermore, we will leverage teleconnections with the North Pacific and North America using principal component regression analysis to reconstruct past cloud cover in the Northeast. Tree ring data sets from coastal Russia and Alaska will be utilized to further examine the effects of the Pacific on Northeast climate.