54-14 Paleo-traits to climate spaces: sensitivity of a translational simulation modeling approach to trait variation for hot-house Earth biotic crisis plant survivability

Session: New Approaches to Old Fossil Collections

Presenting Author:

William Matthaeus

Authors:

Matthaeus, William J¹, Wilson, Jonathan P.², White, Joseph D³, Jones, Wray⁴, Cross, Owen⁵, Hametz-Berner, Rebecca⁶, Hornum, Shoshi⁷, Mattison, Wyatt⁸, Peppe, Daniel J⁹, McElwain, Jennifer C¹⁰

(1) Discipline of Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Dublin, Ireland, (2) Department of Environmental Studies, Haverford College, Haverford, PA, USA, (3) Department of Biology, Baylor University, Waco, TX, USA, (4) Department of Geosciences, Baylor University, Waco, TX, USA, (5) Department of Environmental Studies, Haverford College, Haverford, PA, USA, (6) Department of Environmental Studies, Haverford College, Haverford, PA, USA, (7) Department of Environmental Studies, Haverford College, Haverford, PA, USA, (8) Department of Environmental Studies, Haverford College, Haverford, PA, USA, (9) Department of Geosciences, Baylor University, Waco, TX, USA, (10) Discipline of Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Dublin, Ireland,

Abstract:

Plant traits, ecosystem function, and environmental properties are integrated in Earth system processes that drive organic carbon fixation and water cycling. For Phanerozoic times when the terrestrial surface was dominated by extinct and non-analog plants, understanding the feedbacks, tipping points, and other complex behaviors emerging from this system requires modeling approaches. We anchor deep time ecosystem model simulations in the paleobotanical record, which contains numerous well-preserved anatomical specimens, from which functional traits of extinct plants (paleo-traits) can be estimated for much of the Phanerozoic. We then integrate paleo-traits and paleo-climate using a computational model (Paleo-BGC). This approach can be used to infer function for plant-dominated ecosystems across the Phanerozoic. We present a study of the sensitivity of our approach to variation in trait and climate inputs, focused on a synthesis of fossil-derived parameters and neo-botanical trait variation. We use a hot-house Earth paleoecological event, the Triassic-Jurassic extinction (T-J; ~200 Ma), to evaluate the role of leaf and xylem traits in determining global forest cover with high atmospheric CO2, and compare the resulting climate spaces for each of two time-appropriate plant types (gingkophytes and bennettitialans) under different models of trait variation. Linking the fossil record to global change, which are both recorded in the rock record, using synthetic approaches such as ours leverages the current understanding of plant biochemistry and biophysics. Using the same tools, we aim to better understand biotic crises in Earth’s deep past and compare them to the modern biosphere. Improving this approach requires the collection of era-appropriate functional traits. The work presented here will help direct prioritized trait collection efforts to minimize error in traits with high sensitivity in Paleo-BGC, and clarify potential biosphere responses to extremely elevated CO2.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Program. Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-9808

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