230-5 Analyzing Volcanic Impacts of Low-VEI Eruptions at Global Pinch Points due to Climate Change

Session: The Power of Hard Rocks: Driving the Energy Transition and Serving Society (Posters)

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The Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull eruption of 2010 exemplified the impacts volcanic activity can have near a pinch point—a location where global industry and trade is densely concentrated—with major economic impacts felt in Europe. This study works to understand future risks of a volcanic eruption taking place near a pinch point, with a focus on impacts of a rising tropopause. With warming climate trends, the tropopause is rising ~53 m/decade, affecting volcanic stratospheric injection. Our study is accomplished by modeling climate impacts of past eruptions using the Volc2Clim modeling software (Schmidt et al.).  Model outputs include sulfur aerosol optical depth, aerosol forcing, and the surface temperature anomaly caused by sulfur aerosols, which can be used to project other impacts such as ash transport. For this study, parameters from four past eruptions were used: (1) Mount Tambora, 1815, (2) Laki, 1783, (3) Eyjafjallajökull, 2010, and (4) Merapi, 2010. These were chosen on the basis of location, eruptive magnitude, and potential for catastrophic impact. Models were run using conditions from the original eruption date, present day, and projected atmospheric conditions for 2100.  Eruption year and tropopause height based on the expected value for that year were adjusted for each simulation.  It should be noted that the Volc2Clim software is calibrated for SO2 mass injection <18 Tg which impacts the outputs of the simulated Laki (91.5 Tg) and Tambora eruptions (71.5 Tg). 

As the climate warms, glacial melting has been correlated with an increase in volcanic activity, and a rising tropopause reduces the amount of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere. These trends suggest there will be greater impacts felt by the human population after eruptions, particularly for low-VEI eruptions. Preliminary results from this study show a correlation between increasing tropopause height and lower surface temperature cooling, resulting from less volcanic aerosols being injected into the stratosphere. With the decreasing cooling effect of low-VEI eruptions, potential offset of global warming by volcanic cooling would become increasingly inviable. The volcanic aerosols remaining in the troposphere create a variety of regional impacts like crop failure and water contamination from acid rain or delay of goods resulting in economic loss. When occurring at pinch points, regional impacts could be magnified, with global impacts like that of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption.  

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Program. Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-7595

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