12-6 Developing an Earthquake Resilient Society

Session: The Geodynamic Evolution of the Himalaya: From Mountain Building to Modern Seismicity and Climate Change

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Himalaya is seismically one of the most active continental regions globally, having hosted the strongest continental earthquake of Mw 8.7 on 15 August 1950 in the north-east India. After 1950, no Mw ≥ 8 earthquake has occurred in the Himalayan belt.  A great earthquake could occur any time anywhere in the Himalayan seismic belt. Where and when it would occur cannot be foretold with any certainty. Even if it is forecasted that an earthquake of Mw 7.5 would occur in the vicinity of New Delhi on the next Sunday at the noon time, can everyone leave Delhi? That is not possible. So, we need to learn to live with earthquakes. A very successful exercise in this regarded was conducted by creating scenarios as what would happen if the 1905 Kangra M ~ 8 earthquake repeats today by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Govt. of India in collaboration with other agencies. A hypothetical earthquake of Mw 8.0 was postulated at Mandi (near the epicenter of 1905 Kangra earthquake). Isoseismals were generated. Using the 2011 Census data for demography and building typology, it was estimated that if the earthquake occurred in mid-night, the number of human lives lost would be ~ 0.9 million combining the states of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and the Union Territory of Chandigarh! NDMA took up detailed preparatory exercises involving the state and center bodies for Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) of life-line buildings; school sensitizing events; Incident Response System (IRS); and awareness generation program. National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), and State Disaster Response Forces played a very important role. After a year-long preparations, Mega-mock drills were conducted for the hypothetical Mw 8 earthquake occurring at 11 am on 13 February 2013. Public participated whole heartedly. Performance of all the sectors was evaluated by independent observers.  Quite a few shortcomings were found. Overall, it was a very successful exercise. There are ample examples that the countries that observe annually an earthquake day have done better when an earthquake occurs.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-8658

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