98-11 Integrating functional traits and ecological niche modeling to assess the vulnerability of mollusk species to climate change

Session: Linking Biodiversity Loss to Environmental Stressors Through Integrated Approaches

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Understanding which species are most vulnerable to extinction under climate change is a fundamental challenge in evolutionary biology, requiring the evaluation of both organismal traits and group-level ecological properties. In this study, we examined 57 extant marine bivalve and gastropod species from the Western Atlantic of North America, integrating functional traits with ecological niche modeling to assess vulnerability to future climate conditions. This diverse fauna, well-documented taxonomically and spatially, includes many species with stratigraphic ranges extending to the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, a useful analog for projected future climates. Using climate projections under SSP1-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, we modeled future habitat suitability (2050 and 2100) and assessed associations with functional traits, such as life habit and basal metabolic rate (BMR). Habitat loss was found to be geographically widespread, with vulnerability hotspots consistently identified in the southeastern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. The extent and intensity of loss increased over time and were most severe under SSP5-8.5, with over 60% of modeled species projected to lose suitable habitat in large portions of the region by 2100. Although epifaunal species showed slightly higher median habitat loss, especially under 2100 projections, differences among life habit groups were small and not statistically significant. Similarly, while a weak negative trend suggested that species with higher BMRs may experience less habitat loss, this relationship was not statistically meaningful. Overall, our results highlight the value of combining trait-based and niche modeling approaches, showing that vulnerability is widespread and climate-driven, but not strongly predicted by individual traits alone.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Program. Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-10665

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