272-12 Influence of Uncertain Plate Tectonic History on AI-based Copper Porphyry Predictions for North America

Session: Faults, Fractures, and Geomechanics for the Energy Transition (Posters)

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Copper porphyry systems, which account for ~70% of global copper production, are known to be strongly controlled by plate tectonics and related petrological processes. Although specific tectonic factors are debated, large copper porphyry deposits have previously been linked to fast plate convergence rates, low crustal carbon content (redox proxy), flat slab dips, and thickened (>30 km) continental crust. To account for these multiple factors, we use supervised machine learning algorithms to identify which parameters are most important in the recipe for copper porphyry formation along the North American Cordillera, following Diaz-Rodriguez et al. (2021). However, the plate tectonic history of the North American Cordillera is highly debated; therefore, novel to our study, we assess copper prospectivity from three end-member plate reconstructions – “EarthByte” (Matthews et al., 2016), “Tomopac” (Wu et al., 2022), and “Tomotectonic” (Clennett et al., 2020).  These plate models show differing tectonic histories in terms of subduction polarity and northward terrane translation, especially during the Late Cretaceous and Eocene when copper porphyry deposits formed.

This is achieved by training and testing the machine learning model on known copper porphyry systems and then searching through a plate reconstruction model to identify other regions with similar tectonic conditions, which could open opportunities for greenfield mineral exploration in North America. We find that the probability of forming a copper porphyry deposit at a given location can differ by up to 90% depending on the plate reconstruction used, highlighting the importance of improving our understanding of Cordilleran tectonic history. However, results from all three models consistently show southern Mexico as having the highest probability of finding copper porphyry systems, suggesting that this underexplored area could be a promising location for future mineral exploration. Along with known locations such as southern Arizona, our results indicate that southern California and central British Columbia are favorable tectonic environments for copper formation, especially during the Late Cretaceous. This research highlights the potential of combing plate reconstructions with AI for practical applications of societal relevance, and demonstrates the importance of further research into the tectonic history of the North American Cordillera.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Program. Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-5908

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