148-15 Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Temperature-Sensitive Benthic Foraminifera in the Arabian Gulf: Species Distribution Models Across SSP Scenarios

Session: Insights from Microfossils and Their Modern Analogs: From Traditional to Emerging Approaches (Posters)

Poster Booth No.: 202

Presenting Author:

Abduljamiu Amao

Author:

Amao, Abduljamiu O.¹

(1) Center for Integrative College of Petroleum Engineering and Geosciences, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, 31261, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, Dhahran, Eastern, Saudi Arabia,

Abstract:

Climate change-induced ocean warming poses a significant threat to marine ecosystems globally, with impacts felt from polar regions to tropical waters. The Arabian Gulf, characterized by extreme temperature and salinity regimes, provides an ideal natural laboratory for predicting biotic responses to climate warming. Building on our previous basin-wide species distribution models of benthic foraminifera (AUC 0.94), this study identifies and forecasts distributional changes of temperature-sensitive species under multiple climate scenarios. Our analysis of 314 species revealed 95 temperature-sensitive taxa (30.3%) for which temperature variables explained >17% of their distribution patterns. Notably, maximum sea surface temperature exerted greater influence (67.4% of sensitive species) than minimum or mean values, suggesting thermal extremes rather than averages drive foraminiferal distributions in this region. Species like Rosalina bradyi (52.9% temperature importance) and Spiroloculina rotunda (37.9%) demonstrated exceptional sensitivity to thermal maxima, while others exhibited mixed-temperature responses. We projected future distributions across the full range of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, from the Paris Agreement-aligned SSP1-1.9 to the high-emission SSP5-8.5 pathway. Preliminary results suggest that even under optimistic climate scenarios, many temperature-sensitive species may experience range modifications, with potentially more pronounced effects under higher-emission pathways. The southern Gulf, where thermal conditions already approach physiological limits for many species, appears particularly vulnerable to potential community restructuring. Heat-dominated species may face greater challenges as temperatures rise, with potential implications for benthic community composition and ecosystem functioning. This developing predictive framework aims to identify potential climate refugia and vulnerable regions, while demonstrating how foraminiferal responses in extreme environments can inform our broader understanding of marine ecosystem adaptation to accelerating ocean warming.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Program. Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-4818

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