129-48 Understanding Eastern Kentucky Flooding Through Hydroclimatological Data and Geospatial Analysis

Abstract:

Flooding events in eastern Kentucky are becoming more frequent and severe, raising concerns. Understanding flood patterns and their links to major hydrological shifts is essential for building resilience. Project 2: Paleoperspectives of CLIMBS aims to reconstruct past climate patterns by analyzing hydroclimatic data, thereby establishing a paleoclimate record for Kentucky. This study combines paleoclimate reconstruction, extensive hydroclimate data, groundwater and surface water observations, and geospatial modeling to assess historical and current hydrologic changes in the Kentucky River basin. Historical streamflow trends from U.S. Geological Survey gauges in the Kentucky River basin were analyzed alongside land-cover data from 1985 to 2025 to assess the effects of forest loss, surface mining, and other landscape disturbances within the Kentucky River Watershed. Digital elevation models, lithology, terrain-derived indices, and hydrologic variables were integrated into spatial raster analyses to assess runoff generation and compare watershed conditions before and after an extensive flood event. The analysis shows a significant transformation of forested ridgelines into barren or disturbed areas, where reduced vegetation and altered soil structure can increase runoff potential and worsen downstream flooding. Analyzing shallow groundwater monitoring data helps evaluate how changes in shallow groundwater levels before, during, and after heavy rainfall can increase soil saturation and generate overland flow, even in areas previously not classified as hazard zones. The susceptibility maps and hydrologic data produced will aid the Kentucky Geological Survey and community partners in identifying high-risk zones, guiding monitoring and mitigation efforts, and enhancing resilience against future flood events in eastern Kentucky.

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