The Perils of Radiocarbon Dating and Chronological Modeling in Cosmic Impact Claims

Session: Myths and Misrepresentations surrounding Cosmic Impact claims in Paleoclimatology, Paleontology, Paleoecology, Geoarchaeology, and Quaternary Research

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Abstract:

Recent claims for late Quaternary impact events frequently rely on radiocarbon dating to establish synchronous deposits of potential impact proxies between geographically separated sites. On its face, radiocarbon dating appears to be a principled method for establishing that potential impact proxies were indeed deposited at the same time between different locations, or, conversely, disproving synchronous deposition. However, ¹⁴C measurement errors, statistical uncertainty in the radiocarbon calibration curve, redeposited materials, and “old wood” effects complicate this approach. Over the last three decades, statistical modeling tools have been developed to reduce these uncertainties and refine chronologies, which proponents of some recent claims have employed to demonstrate the plausibility of inter-site synchroneity within varying levels of statistical uncertainty. Using the Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis as an example, this talk demonstrates that applications of these models often violate statistical assumptions or rely on inadequate radiocarbon datasets, effectively extending the methods beyond their intended use. In addition to methodological problems with these applications, results are often misrepresented as supporting confirmation rather than plausibility.

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