14-2 Bias in Basins: Investigating Preservational Megabias in a Simulated World

Session: Interdisciplinary Paleontology: New approaches to solving complex paleontological problems (Part II)

Presenting Author:

Alexandra Apgar

Authors:

Apgar, Alexandra Davis¹, Xing, Jiahua², Qiao, Huijie³, Machado Stredel, Fernando⁴, Saupe, Erin⁵, Peterson, A. Townsend⁶, Soberón, Jorge⁷, Moore, Jason Richard⁸, Myers, Corinne⁹

(1) Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA, (2) Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Chaoyang, China, (3) Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Chaoyang District, China, (4) Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA, (5) Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, (6) Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA, (7) Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA, (8) University of New Mexico, Honors College, Albuquerque, NM, USA, (9) Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA,

Abstract:

Our interpretation of the terrestrial fossil record is impacted by several major megabiases, including how only terrestrial organisms that live, disperse, or deposit within an actively filling, net-depositional sedimentary basin may potentially preserve. It is imperative, therefore, that we gain an understanding of how greatly this bias can impact our ability to accurately represent species traits, phylogenetic relationships, and overall ecosystem structures. Multiple studies have utilized a virtual world model simulating global conditions (including fluctuating precipitation and temperature patterns) across the past 120,000 years in order to delineate macroevolutionary patterns of marine organisms over time. Virtual species within this model were seeded into grid cells and allowed to expand their geographic range based on assigned values relating to dispersal ability and niche breadth. Here, we examine the impact and extend of the basin-only preservational megabias on phylogenetic relationships and overall species diversity within terrestrial species across all simulated terrestrial landscapes (North America, South America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and Australia). The position of all sedimentary basins active within the past 120,000 years were added post-hoc to simulation results, with 12 10,000-year time slices designated for the elimination of all species seeds not within a basin. Overall species diversity and phylogenetic relationships of simulated species were examined within each time bin and compared to their ‘real’ record, with further examination done to determine if any relationship existed between these ‘preserved’ species and additional traits (niche breadth, dispersal ability, basin size, etc.). These processes were then implemented post-hoc into simulation results again, this time with basin positions randomized. Preliminary results demonstrate that while the basin-only preservational megabias does affect simulated paleoecological interpretations, this impact is minimal beyond overall record reduction.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 58, No. 4, 2026

© Copyright 2026 The Geological Society of America (GSA), all rights reserved.