16-31 Identifying Climate Drivers of Notable Historical Wildfires in the Eastern United States

Session: From Thin Section to Outcrop: Exploration of Undergraduate Research (Posters)

Presenting Author:

Authors:

Abstract:

Wildfire risk is considered to be relatively low in the Eastern United States because of its generally wet climate and uniform precipitation throughout the year. However, observational and paleofire records show that large wildfires have occurred in the region in the past, and ongoing climate change is increasing the risk of fire outbreaks.To identify the primary weather and climate controls, we first selected significant East Coast fires between 1963 and 2024 based on extensive literature review, focusing on events with large spatial footprint and extended burn time or regional clustering of multiple outbreaks. These criteria allow us to select a set of exemplar fires spanning from New York to Florida that are likely to be more strongly influenced by climate conditions than local factors such as land cover and vegetation, making them well suited for examining climate drivers. We then analyze relevant atmospheric variables such as temperature, precipitation as well as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and vapor pressure deficit and associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. For each event, we analyze atmospheric conditions during the month of the fire and the preceding season by comparing them to long-term averages. While high temperatures is a contributing factor, we find that below normal precipitation and negative PDSI values during the fire period and in the preceding season are the most consistent features associated with long-lasting, intense wildfires. Building on this analysis, we will develop a framework to analyze the impact climate variability and extremes on wildfire occurrences and to determine future wildfire risk in the region.

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