7-25 Modeling Short-Duration, High-Intensity Streamflow: Laying a Framework for Larger Models in Suburban South Carolina

Session: Undergraduate Research, Part I (Posters)

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Abstract:

Flooding it the most common and costliest natural. As the effects of anthropogenic climate change continue to intensify, short-duration high-intensity rainfall continues to increase in intensity and frequency. This study explores how local hydrologic models can be implemented in a suburban area of Greenville, South Carolina, and support the development of a real-time flood forecasting system to accurately represent the risks of flood and enable preparation and response actions. To achieve this objective, a hydrologic model using the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) software was developed for the region, eight different rainfall events were simulated using quantitative precipitation estimates and verified using observed water levels. The results showed that the model can reproduce the flood peak and detect flood occurrence for some events. However, considering the heterogeneity of the rainfall events (e.g. winter vs. summer events) and modeling limitations, the hydrograph bias varied from 27% to 558%. The simulation of Helene 2024, which was the most extreme precipitation event, resulted in streamflow overestimation indicating the need for refining the model to better represent a broad range of precipitation events. This model is under development and next steps will focus on incorporate new field data, refine model parameters, and evaluate additional flood events.

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