7-24 Assessment of Historical and Projected Trends in Seasonal Precipitation in Upstate South Carolina

Session: Undergraduate Research, Part I (Posters)

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Abstract:

Climate change significantly impacts the climate patterns and the water cycle, and consequently water availability for different populations. Understanding these effects at a regional scale is important for efficient water resource management and ensuring sufficient water supply for livelihoods and socio-economic development. While past studies have examined large-scale patterns, regional variations are often different from general global trends. This study explores patterns in historical climate trends and global climate model simulations in Greenville, SC based on various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), as well as any changes to wet and dry seasonal trends. SSPs are emissions scenarios defined by socio-economic conditions and radiative forcing levels. This study uses SSP245 (middle-of-the-road development), SSP370 (regional rivalry with high inequality and low international cooperation), and SSP585 (fossil-fueled development with little climate change mitigation). Our research aims to answer the question:  What are the possible future changes on precipitation trends under different climate scenarios? Total seasonal precipitation from historical and future simulations under different scenarios were obtained from several global climate models in the Coupled Model intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMPI6) and analyzed to detect trends. Seasonal precipitation totals were averaged across all models and analyzed using standard deviation in order to classify wet, dry, and normal seasons. Results show increasing precipitation trends across all SSPs relative to historical data, with higher increases and seasonal variability correlated to higher SSPs. The December January February (DJF) months show the strongest increase and variability. The frequency of extreme wet seasons increases as SSP scenarios increase. These results support the hypothesis that wet regions my become wetter under climate change, but also that increasing variability may impact water resources. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating seasonal variability and extreme precipitation into local water resource planning and management.

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