10-12 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Availability in Greenville, South Carolina

Session: Undergraduate and Graduate Geoscience Student Showcase (Posters)

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Water availability varies from region to region and is susceptible to changes based on alterations in precipitation patterns due to climate change. The extent of these changes varies based on the atmospheric gas composition, moisture content, and temperature, as well as land cover. Additionally, Greenville, South Carolina, is a fast-growing region, and the future water demand increase may create more risk for residents during flood and drought periods. Given that floods or droughts are mostly driven by changes in precipitation, this study aims to analyze the shifts in precipitation trends, annually and seasonally, in Greenville, South Carolina, based on downscaled climate model data. Historical (1950-2014) and projected (2015-2100) downscaled precipitation data from climate models, specifically the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), were used to verify the observed period and analyze potential future scenarios. This study analyzes three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP), ranging from “best case scenario” to “worst case scenario”, for three water sources: Table Rock Reservoir, North Saluda Reservoir, and Lake Keowee. The results show that under each SSP, precipitation is expected to increase. However, the extent to which it increased varied by season and SSP scenario. Additionally, traditional wetter seasons, like summer, continued to have the most precipitation, while traditional drier seasons, like fall, continued to have less. However, there was more variability in the changes to the spring and winter seasons. This contributes to the standing theory that wet areas are going to get wet while dry areas are going to get drier. In understanding this, regional planners can have more insight into policies and infrastructures that may need to be updated or created for mitigation efforts or can identify future research that needs to be conducted. 

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 58, No. 1, 2026

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